Can Trump’s return to White House be an opportunity for enhancing US-Turkey ties?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was among the first foreign leaders to congratulate U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on his early November election victory.
President Joe Biden has not hosted Erdogan at the White House though the two have met on sidelines of international summits and spoken by phone.
Speaking to journalists accompanying his return from visits to Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan, Erdogan expressed his hope for improved U.S. ties, adding, however, that in-person meetings would be needed to achieve that end, and that Ankara needs to wait to see what kind of a Cabinet Trump forms.
The two leaders had a close personal relationship during Trump’s first term in office. However, bilateral relations have also been marked by tough times during that administration. With Trump’s January return to the White House, analysts told VOA that although there may be opportunities for more cooperation in some areas, they don’t expect major changes.
James Jeffrey, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Turkey from 2008 to 2010, sees Ukraine as one area with potential for cooperation.
Referring to Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine, Jeffrey says Turkey could play a role in negotiating a cease-fire, making both sides “well-aligned for a productive relationship.”
Alan Makovsky, a senior fellow for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress, also believes Trump’s priority to end the war in Ukraine creates a significant opportunity for Erdogan.
A NATO ally, Turkey has adopted a careful balancing act amid the war in Ukraine, supplying armed drones to Ukraine while maintaining ties with Russia in energy and tourism.
Erdogan, who has maintained good relations with both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, has long said neither side is gaining from the war and offered to host and mediate negotiations.
Disagreement over Syria
Disagreements between Turkey and the United States during Trump’s first term included Ankara’s frustration with U.S. support for Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) led by Kurdish militia — People’s Protection Units, known as YPG in northern Syria.
After a phone call with Erdogan on October 6, 2019, Trump unexpectedly announced that the U.S. would withdraw from Syria. Many U.S. military officials, all of whom were caught off guard by the announcement, did not support the idea.
Tension between the allies worsened after Trump on October 9 sent a letter to Erdogan, warning him against a military incursion into Syria.
Following Trump’s withdrawal announcement, Turkey launched a military operation in northern Syria targeting the YPG on October 9.
A cease-fire agreement was reached during then-Vice President Mike Pence’s visit to Ankara on October 17.
Now, some in Ankara expect the U.S. may reconsider its presence in northern Syria during Trump’s second term.
Jeffrey, a U.S. envoy for Syria from 2018 to 2020, suggests Trump’s administration may reassess this issue.
“Each time people were able to convince [Trump on Syria, it] was that the troops were serving a set of important purposes. This is one of the most low-cost, high-return military deployments. We are keeping the Islamic State under control. Secondly, we are holding vital terrain, blocking Iranian, Assad and Russian ambitions,” he told VOA.
Washington has long said its SDF partnership is necessary for the enduring defeat of ISIS and countering Iran.
Ankara considers YPG a Syrian offshoot of PKK, which U.S. officials have also designated as a terrorist organization.
Trump nominated Marco Rubio, a Republican senator from Florida, for secretary of state. Rubio was one of the strongest opponents of a U.S.-pullout from Syria at the time.
He labeled the decision as “a catastrophic mistake that will have dire consequences far beyond Syria,” urging Trump to reconsider it.
“We’ll have to see how that works out and how Marco Rubio’s views may have changed to accord more with Trump’s or vice versa,” Makovksy said. “But anyone who thought that Trump’s election meant that the U.S. would soon be withdrawing from Syria would certainly have to rethink that view in light of the Rubio appointment. I think that makes it unlikely that we will withdraw from Syria.”
Trump’s nominees for Cabinet positions will require Senate approval before they assume office.
F-35 program
One complicating factor in U.S.-Turkey relations during Trump’s first term was Turkey’s purchase of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia, which prompted Washington to remove Ankara from an F-35 joint strike fighter program.
“The F-35 cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence collection platform that will be used to learn about its advanced capabilities,” said a White House statement when the system was delivered in July 2019, explaining the U.S. decision to remove Turkey from the project.
The Trump administration in December 2020 sanctioned Turkey under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
Turkey, which has since requested removal of CAATSA sanctions, has returned to talks with U.S. officials about a possible return to the F-35 program.
Analysts say that while there is a likelihood that CAATSA sanctions might be lifted during Trump’s second term, any solution to the S-400 issue that is not permanent would not be technically acceptable to the U.S. military.
Describing the F-35s as the U.S. military’s largest project since World War II, Jeffrey said, “A permanent solution is that they [the S-400s] go away, they’re sold to somebody else. I would like to have a solution, but technically, I don’t think there is one.’’
Makovsky called Turkey’s return to the F-35 program unlikely in the near term.
“If they completely get rid of the S-400s, really give up possession as the law requires, there could be a reasonable chance for F-35,” he told VOA. “But it will be up to the so-called Four Corners – the chairman and senior members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.”
This story originated in VOA’s Turkish Service.